Bank of England holds interest rates at 4% as Rachel Reeves’ Budget looms

The Bank of England has voted narrowly to hold interest rates at 4%, pausing further cuts amid stubborn inflation and growing uncertainty ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ pivotal Budget later this month.

In a closely split decision, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5–4 to maintain the current rate, with Governor Andrew Bailey casting the deciding vote. Bailey said he would “prefer to wait” before supporting any further loosening of monetary policy, citing ongoing concerns about inflation expectations among households and elevated wage growth.

The Bank expects inflation to remain above its 2% target until the second quarter of 2027, forecasting a gradual decline from its current 3.8% level. Officials said consumer price inflation had “peaked” but warned that persistent price pressures — particularly in services and food — continued to pose risks.

In its latest economic outlook, the Bank maintained its growth forecast of 1.4% for both 2025 and 2026, revising up the current year slightly but lowering next year’s estimate amid weakening demand and a slowing labour market.

Some members of the MPC highlighted evidence of a cooling jobs market and falling vacancies, which could reduce inflationary pressures. Others, however, warned that wage growth of 4.9% in the three months to August was still too high to justify immediate cuts.

Bailey said that while inflation risks were “less pressing” than in August, the case for easing policy had not yet been proven.

“Upside risks to inflation have become less pressing since August, and I see further policy easing if disinflation becomes more clearly established in the period ahead,” he said. “Rather than cutting Bank Rate now, I would prefer to wait and see if the durability in disinflation is confirmed in upcoming economic developments this year.”

The Bank’s statement dropped the word “careful” from its policy guidance, describing instead a “gradual path downwards” for rates — a subtle but significant signal that a series of cuts could follow in 2026 if inflation continues to ease.

The decision comes as markets await Reeves’ 26 November Budget, expected to include new tax rises to fund public spending and reduce borrowing. The Chancellor has hinted that “all must contribute” to restoring fiscal health — a departure from earlier pledges that only those with “the broadest shoulders” would face higher taxes.

Economists say any income tax increases announced later this month could be disinflationary, reducing consumer spending power and potentially allowing the Bank to cut rates sooner in 2026. However, uncertainty over fiscal policy — and the size of a reported £30 billion funding gap — is prompting the MPC to keep its options open.

The Bank also noted that last year’s £25 billion increase in employers’ national insurance contributions (NICs) had fed through to higher supermarket prices, with food inflation expected to reach 5.3% by year-end. Officials said the impact of those changes was now largely absorbed by consumers.

Economists were divided on the Bank’s decision. William Ellis, senior economist at the IPPR, said the MPC had missed an opportunity to support growth.

“Monetary policy remains tight, and the Bank should have gone further today by cutting rates to support the economy,” he said. “With inflation flat, sluggish growth, and a cooling labour market, the case for easing is clear.”

Daniel Austin, CEO and co-founder of ASK Partners, said the decision reflected a cautious stance amid global volatility and fiscal uncertainty.

“With the Autumn Statement approaching and policy in flux, it’s little surprise the MPC has held rates at 4%,” he said. “High fixed-rate mortgages mean meaningful relief for homeowners remains distant. In property, the decision reinforces a ‘wait and see’ mood — with buyers pausing and developers holding back.”

Austin added that while easing planning rules and offering temporary levy relief could help restart stalled housing projects, “a clear, sustained fall in inflation remains key to unlocking broader investment”.

Despite signs of progress on inflation, the Bank’s latest move underscores a fragile recovery. A combination of high borrowing costs, weak productivity growth, and looming fiscal tightening has kept confidence muted across households and businesses alike.

With both the Bank of England and the Treasury facing competing pressures — to tame inflation without choking growth — the next few months could prove decisive in shaping Britain’s economic trajectory into 2026.

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Bank of England holds interest rates at 4% as Rachel Reeves’ Budget looms