Bitcoin: From Boom to Bust and Back

From September 18 to 25, the cryptocurrency market was pretty active and liquid, even compared to Forex. Unlike the chaotic fluctuations seen across all crypto coins, there was a noticeable trend. In other words, the market was a bit rough, and while we were all waiting for Bitcoin (BTC USD) to finally break free from the $25,000-$28,000 range, it seemed to fake us out with a brief dip below $26,750 before returning to its preferred, or as some traders put it, a “fair” price.

It seemed that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might ease up on Binance.US, after filing a lawsuit against cryptocurrency exchange, which would benefit the entire industry. Bulls were ready to take advantage and push the price higher. But things didn’t go as expected as usual. The judge rejected the SEC’s demand for more detailed information and documents from Binance.US. Instead, he suggested that both parties work on requests within the evidence framework, reduce the amount of information requested, and allow some shareholders to testify.

Also, the market became extremely overheated amid expectations of the US Federal Reserve’s decision on credit rates. While some kept a close eye on the economic calendar, waiting for the moment to buy, others quietly closed their long positions. Accordingly, after the Fed’s announcement, the rates began to decline. Although the US Federal Reserve left the base interest rate untouched at 5.5%, which was in line with expectations, it still sent a wave of concern through the market.

The fall of the US stock indices added fuel to the fire. In particular, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices each lost about 3% during the week’s early trading hours.  Large investors continue to weigh up the consequences of the Fed’s recent decision, which hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes, undoubtedly having an effect on the rates of both conventional currencies, especially paired with the US dollar, and cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin. 

One of the largest holding companies, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), bought $147.3 million worth of Bitcoins during the fall. They spread out their transactions over nearly a month. But the fact remains that as of September 27, MicroStrategy owns 158,245 BTC acquired for $4.68 billion.

Considering the overall dynamics, it can be noted that Bitcoin’s movements have taken on a cyclical pattern. Rapid surges or declines are followed by extended periods of stability, which has occurred several times recently. In fact, right now, we are just watching another one of these periods. But what is more interesting is that such ups and downs also form a larger and consequently longer sideways movement. 

The primary drivers behind the rise in the world’s leading cryptocurrency’s value are the slowdown in inflation and rate hike expectations, as well as a weakening US dollar and growth of stock indices. Unfortunately, there has been no game-changing news in recent weeks that has dramatically affected prices, inflation, or rates. However, any such information is anticipated amid the backdrop of extended stagnation. If such news coincides with the halving event, it might be a rocket that’s hard to contain.

Now, it is possible to determine that there is a horizontal channel marked by two levels, between which the price is currently moving – $25000-$31000. Thus, under favorable conditions, the bulls will break through the nearest minor resistance of $27500 and effortlessly push the price toward the $31,000 test. Otherwise, a support test of $25000 will follow with a drop-down to $20000 until big players step in.