This exclusive chart reveals why the groundswell of buzz around 'Barbie' and 'Oppenheimer' could help reverse Hollywood's box-office doldrums in spite of the actors' strike

• The highly-anticipated "Barbenheimer' opening weekend is finally here.
• New data suggests "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" could help reverse Hollywood's box-office doldrums in 2023.
• A lot's riding on the openings, with the industry facing two simultaneous strikes and a series of poorly-performing films.

Temperatures are rising all around the world, with one notable exception: the box office, where this year's film openings have mostly been, at best, lukewarm.

Aside from a handful of surprise outperformers like this spring's Super Mario Bros.-themed movie, tentpole debuts like "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny," which premiered June 30, have generally fallen short of analyst expectations.

But an analysis of data from multiple social-media platforms prepared exclusively for Insider by Diesel Labs suggests that the forecast for the Hollywood box office could switch from cloudy to sunny — even as the industry battles its first dual strike scenario in more than six decades, with members of both SAG-AFTRA and the Writers Guild of America having walked off the job.

Social-media attention on forthcoming and recent film releases looks to be trending higher for titles like "Barbie," "Oppenheimer," and "Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Pt. 1" versus the 2022 summer blockbuster films benchmark, Diesel Labs found. The company — which specializes in analyzing vast troves of data for media and entertainment firms — looked at the "volume of attention" on movies ahead of their launches.

Diesel Labs pulls data from major social and video platforms to assess how social-media buzz about these films is doing as their premieres draw closer, counting down the number of days till each one debuts. The chart, which was generated on July 19, shows that each movie has enjoyed a spike in online conversations leading up to its launch — but some have had more traction than others.

Now, all eyes are on "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer," which, ahead of their releases Friday, were tracking above last summer's benchmark volume of social-media attention. Together, the very distinct films have adopted the shared branding of "Barbenheimer," with some moviegoers planning a double feature to cram them both in this weekend.

"According to our estimates, we project that more than 200,000 moviegoers in North America will be enjoying an exciting same-day double feature of 'Barbie' and 'Oppenheimer,'" Michael O'Leary, president and CEO of the National Association of Theatre Owners said in a statement on Wednesday, citing "excellent word of mouth" on both films.

With the social-media activity around the dueling openings suggesting enthusiasm from audiences, distributors Warner Bros. ("Barbie") and Universal ("Oppenheimer") could be in for good news.

Meanwhile, "Mission Impossible," which premiered July 12, pulled in roughly $80 million at the domestic box office in its first five days. Its opening was "roughly average for an action thriller at this point in the series," said David A. Gross of the film consultancy Franchise Entertainment Research, according to Variety.

International markets looked good for Tom Cruise's latest spy adventure, Gross added. Ticket sales are expected to continue rising as the movie closes in on its second weekend, with domestic sales nearing $100 million.

One movie that tracked below last year's benchmark volume of attention was "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny," Diesel Labs found. Its box office performance was similarly underwhelming. While this most recent Indy installment recently surpassed $150 million domestically and $308 million worldwide, it's just broken even with its production budget and has a long way to go before it's profitable.

A hit-or-miss year for film openings, and ongoing Hollywood strikes may not help the box office rebound

This year, Pixar's "Elemental" and Marvel's "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania," both of which were produced by Disney, did poorly, as did "Shazam! Fury of the Gods" and "The Flash" from Warner Bros.

Universal's "Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken," which opened on June 30, experienced such a tepid response at the box office, earning about $34 million worldwide, that it has already been fast-tracked for viewers to stream at home.

Stronger performers included "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" and Disney's live-action remake of "The Little Mermaid." The former was released in April, and the latter released the following month.

In spite of the hopeful signs for imminent film openings, another wild card has emerged in Hollywood that could complicate any possible box office rebound: the SAG-AFTRA strike that began earlier this month, exacerbating existing tensions unleashed by the Writers Guild of America's work stoppage that started in May.

Under their respective unions' strike rules, neither actors nor writers are permitted to promote projects. With actors protesting on the picket lines instead of the red carpet or sitting for live interviews on the morning shows, it's unclear how ticket sales could be affected.

Now, Hollywood is hoping that this weekend will mark an explosive turnaround with films like "Oppenheimer," director Christopher Nolan's look at the life of the scientist most closely associated with the creation of the atomic bomb. Boxoffice Pro on Wednesday said the World War II period piece could open domestically anywhere from $52 million to $72 million.

But even with the burst that may come from "Barbie" director Greta Gerwig's all-pink tribute to the world's most iconic doll — it's expected to open between $140 million and $175 million, according to Boxoffice Pro — it may be too soon to put on rose-colored glasses.

At the London premiere of "Oppenheimer" on July 13, actors including Matt Damon, Emily Blunt, and Rami Malek walked out early to show solidarity with their union. And, if their decision serves as any harbinger for what to expect during the rest of the summer season, our thermostats may still be poised to shatter more records than any film at the box office.

This story was originally published on July 19 and has been updated.

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