Wagner's chaotic attempt at armed rebellion is starting to (kind of) make sense

• Wagner's aborted rebellion in Russia over the weekend was a chaotic mess that ultimately failed.
• It didn't make much sense that its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin would stage an uprising that way.
• Two reports since — from the NYT and WSJ — suggest Prigozhin had a better plan but couldn't enact it.

What the fuck just happened?

That's the question anybody following the chaotic attempt by the Wagner mercenary group to stage a rebellion in Russia last weekend probably asked themselves.

In a messy blur, as many as 25,000 men led by Yevgeny Prigozhin upped sticks from their bases and turned their guns on the motherland.

They took the militarily crucial city of Rostov-on-Don with hardly a shot fired, then stormed up the highway towards Moscow, taking down planes and helicopters sent by the Russian army for good measure.

And then — they turned around and gave up? Prigozhin bailed on his plan, sent everyone home, and headed off to some kind of retirement in Belarus.

According to the Kremlin's official narrative, the catalyst for the climbdown was an intervention by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

Lukashenko said his secret was dropping a whole series of f-bombs (and worse) to persuade Prigozhin that the Russian military was strong enough to crush him — something he surely knew already.

But now — thanks to reporting over the past few days — we have another idea of what may have happened.

Yesterday, The New York Times fleshed out an idea widely held by Russia-watchers: that Prigozhin hoped the regular Russian army would rise up alongside him.

The soldiers wouldn't need to look far for a motive: widespread hatred for defense minister Sergei Shoigu and army chief of staff Valery Gerasimov.

Per The Times, a senior Russian general with a notable grudge against the two in particular may have been in on the plot.

Citing US intelligence officials, The Times said that Sergei Surovikin — top dog in Russia's invasion of Ukraine until he got demoted by Shoigu in favor of Gerasimov — was in on it.

Its report said Surovikin knew about the rebellion and helped plan it. But when things kicked off, Surovikin choked and did nothing other than post a video telling Wagner fighters to give up.

A second major report may explain why. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Prigozhin actually had a totally different, and better, plan than what he ended up doing.

The Journal — again citing US officials — said Prigozhin had wanted to wait longer to rise up, until Gerasimov and Shoigu were physically in Rostov-on-Don where Wagner's men could take them hostage.

That would have given them huge leverage without the need to embark on a 650-mile suicide mission to Moscow, where heavy resistance would likely await.

Per The Journal, Prigozhin never got to do that because his plan leaked and the visit was moved back.

Knowing Putin was on to him, per this new narrative, Prigozhin instead did the best he could at short notice.

If that is true, he may well have been happy to take Lukashenko's off-ramp once it became clear that it wasn't a trap, at least in the short term.

There are, of course, a thousand other potential explanations, and we may never know the truth.

But I am totally prepared to believe that what we saw over the weekend was pretty much what it looked like — a heavily-armed clown show being run by the seat of its leader's pants.