5 reasons fighting Disney is a political winner for DeSantis — and 6 reasons it could hurt his shot at the presidency

• Disney escalated its fight with DeSantis this week by mounting a lawsuit.
• DeSantis isn't backing down, and some campaign pros say that's a good thing.
• Others think it could torpedo his chances at beating Trump in a GOP primary.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will have to keep reckoning with Donald Duck in addition to Donald Trump.

This week, Walt Disney World dragged DeSantis and other Florida officials into a lawsuit, alleging the governor sought to "weaponize government power" by trying to take control of the theme park's special tax district.

DeSantis had floated all kinds of changes to Disney's area, from building a state prison on bordering land, to imposing new taxes, tolls, and ride regulations. The dispute stems from a curriculum law Disney vowed to decimate, one that limited teachings about gender identity and sexual orientation in public schools.

After a yearlong tug of war, the federal courts will now get to weigh in. But — given that DeSantis is widely expected to mount a 2024 campaign — so will Republican primary voters.

Can DeSantis convince them that going to battle with the Most Magical Place on Earth is worth it? Will it serve DeSantis like King Arthur's Excalibur? Or will it be more like the poison apple that cursed Snow White?

It depends who you ask.

Why it's a political winner

1. To the base, Disney's unsympathetic

While many families love posing with Mickey Mouse or spinning in the Teacup ride at Magic Kingdom, Walt Disney World Co. is ultimately a mega-corporation. To some constituencies, that makes it an enemy.

It's headquartered in Burbank, California, and its executives are what the MAGA base would probably consider to be highly paid "elites." It does a ton of business in China, which many GOP voters view as a threat to the US.

"It's great politics for DeSantis or any other Republican," Justin Sayfie, a partner at the lobbying powerhouse Ballard Partners, told Insider. "I just don't know how much sympathy there is among Republican Party voters for global, Hollywood-entertainment conglomerates."

2. GOP voters agree with DeSantis

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week, 64% of Republicans say DeSantis is right to roll back Disney's special privileges. Another recent poll, from Harvard CAPS/Harris, found 73% of Republicans and 54% of Independents support the governor limiting Disney's autonomy in Florida.

Gunner Ramer, political director at the anti-Trump Republican Accountability Project, told Insider that focus groups among white GOP primary voters without a college degree tell a similar story. They like that DeSantis is a "culture-war warrior who was fighting the establishment."

3. DeSantis can present himself as a fighter for causes he believes in

The law DeSantis is fighting with Disney over is called the Parental Rights in Education Act, which forbids public schools from discussing certain LGBTQ-related topics.

Polls show US voters are marginally supportive of limiting LGBTQ topics in younger grades, but Florida's law wound up going further.

Disney calls the law "Don't Say Gay." Critics are deeply concerned about chilling speech and making LGBTQ parents, teachers, and students feel unwelcome. It has already led to confusion and book removals from school libraries.

Broadly, the GOP sees such laws as a winning issue among voters who think parents should be the ones to teach their children about LGBTQ topics. At question at the start of the fight was "whether five years olds should be instructed on gender identity in public schools," Sayfie said. "Put that on the ballot in Iowa."

DeSantis has said his job was to "stand up" for children against "woke indoctrination."

The governor has no intention of relenting, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody said this week on Fox and Friends. "He is driven by principles and convictions, period," she said.

4. Even DeSantis critics admit Disney's decades-long perks are unfair

Before DeSantis came in, Disney essentially had the power to operate its own government, saving time and money. Unlike its rival parks Universal Studios and SeaWorld, Disney doesn't have to run its plans by zoning commissions or building-inspection departments.

To many voters, this arrangement will be perceived as "corporate welfare," Sayfie said.

Richard Foglesong, the author of the book "Married to the Mouse: Walt Disney World and Orlando," told Insider that he was deeply opposed to the governor's education bill. However, he said he was puzzled that he had never been invited to testify before a state legislative committee given his expertise on Disney's history and advantages in Florida.

"I'd favor taking away a lot of privileges from Disney," he said, "just not the ones DeSantis is talking about. Why aren't legislative Democrats talking about Disney not paying the taxes and fees that other businesses pay that go to support affordable housing and roadways — the kinds of things Democrats are supposed to be for?"

5. DeSantis already ran on being anti-Disney — and won

Taryn Fenske, DeSantis' communications director, has described the Disney fight as being "the will of Florida voters."

Here's why: DeSantis' desire to clamp down on Disney was a major part of his reelection campaign. As DeSantis crisscrossed Florida, he talked frequently about the schools bill and about how he moved to abolish Disney's self-governing status.

Floridians didn't punish him; instead, he won by historic margins. DeSantis bested his opponent, former Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist, by almost 20 points. To many, the blowout solidified Florida's transformation from a purple to a red state.

"There's no reason to believe he won't have the same response" during a presidential election, Sayfie said.

Why it's a political loser

1. It's discordant with Republicans' traditional stance business policy

While a portion of the GOP is populist and distrusting of corporations, the party has historically sided with businesses through tax breaks and less regulation. Critics take issue with DeSantis retaliating against Disney for its stance on the schools law.

"Using government coercion to force a company to think and act identically to its leader sounds more like communism than capitalism," Mike Duhaime, CEO of MAD Global Strategy who was a strategist for former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's 2016 presidential campaign, told Insider. "Even people who side with him on the issue don't believe in the government using power to punish free speech of companies. Certainly; that isn't conservative."

Other potential or declared 2024 candidates, such as former Vice President Mike Pence and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, agree.

DeSantis has pushed back on such criticisms. "The idea that somehow being pro-business means giving companies their own governments, that is not what a free market is all about," he said in Jerusalem Thursday.

2. It could undermine DeSantis' economic message

DeSantis frequently boasts about reopening the state early during the pandemic as a way to save jobs. Under his governorship, Florida has seen an influx of new residents and businesses.

But the Disney fight could undercut Florida's attractiveness. After all, Disney is Florida's biggest tourist attraction and employs 80,000 people. Company CEO Bob Iger called DeSantis' retribution "anti-business" and "anti-Florida."

Could other businesses afford to put up a similar fight?

"DeSantis is likely to scare away other big businesses who fear that if they disagree with him then come to Florida, that he'll seek to punish them the same way he has sought to punish Disney," Foglesong said. "That's not a good message and it's an odd message for a Republican for sure."

3. Mega-donors aren't fans

DeSantis' profile has increased dramatically over the past couple of years in part because he raised a tremendous amount of cash for his reelection bid. He'll need a lot more to win the GOP nomination.

But some prominent megadonors have publicly panned DeSantis' actions against Disney. Citadel founder Ken Griffin, who gave $5 million to DeSantis' reelection, said he disagreed with DeSantis on his Disney retaliation. Citadel even hosted its 30th-anniversary weekend at Disney.

Billionaire GOP donor Thomas Peterffy told the Financial Times he had "put myself on hold" due to DeSantis' stance on social issues such as "book banning."

The stumbles over Disney also have donors wondering whether DeSantis is ready for primetime, Bloomberg reported.

4. Political opponents are ridiculing DeSantis

The Disney battle creates an opening for other 2024 White House contenders and for Democrats.

Trump mocked DeSantis for "being absolutely destroyed by Disney" and Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California heckled the Florida governor after "Mickey Mouse" pulled a fast one on him to maintain control of its land.

Presidential candidate Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor, tweeted to Disney that her home state would "happily accept your 70,000+ jobs if you want to leave Florida."

Jennifer Horn, a former chair of the New Hampshire GOP, said she thought Haley "responded brilliantly." She should talk about Disney "at every campaign stop just like he does," Horn said, predicting DeSantis would lose in court.

"He has opened the door and created opportunities for Nikki Haley and candidates who are in her lane," she said. "That was just not a smart thing. It's an unforced error — now he's going to have to defend himself from both sides."

5. Voters might wonder how it'll play in a general election

Ramer, who runs the focus groups, had a caveat to his findings on the otherwise popular DeSantis-Disney battle. When his firm asked GOP voters what they thought about DeSantis' comments threatening to build a state prison next to Disney, it failed to resonate.

To Ramer, it raised questions about whether DeSantis has the right political instincts. "Does he know when to stop and what plays well with GOP primary voters?" he asked.

One of the biggest takeaways the Republican Accountability Project has from its focus groups is that electability matters to Republican voters. In other words, they might not vote for their favorite candidate if they think someone else has a better shot at winning. And they might not vote for DeSantis if they think the Disney fight is a killer in a general election.

Horn said she thought it was. Families often work hard and save for years to take their children to Disney World. Republican voters would rather see DeSantis fighting Democrats, not Mickey Mouse, she said.

"The problem is he picked the happiest place on earth, the most magical place on earth," she said. "It's really hard to get enough of a base to join you in that fight."

6. It undermines his image as an effective leader

As governor of Florida, DeSantis has benefitted from working with a GOP supermajority legislature largely deferential to his priorities.

Congress would be less accommodating, should he become president. The body is famous for logjams on everything from high-stakes legislation to debt-limit standoffs.

If DeSantis can't bring a resolution to the Disney fight, can he handle the job of president?

"It absolutely is a is a negative reflection on his ability to govern, on his ability to be thoughtful and careful," Horn said. "It reflects poorly on him for all the skills that we say we care about in leaders."