A paranoid Putin still has no idea what to do with Prigozhin, and his indecision is putting him in a dangerous place, experts say

• Vladimir Putin appears uncertain what to do about Yevgeny Prigozhin, experts say.
• Prigozhin led a failed uprising against Russian military leaders.
• Despite being exiled to Belarus, he's been spotted in St. Petersburg.

Vladimir Putin's persistent paranoia and apparent unwillingness to punish those involved in the Wagner mutiny has put the Russian president in a dangerous place, experts said.

In June, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin staged a rebellion against Russian military leaders he blamed for failings in the Ukraine invasion.

The mutiny was the most serious challenge to Putin in decades and exposed how divisions caused by the Ukraine war have loosened his grip on power.

The rebellion was called off after the Kremlin reached a deal with Prigozhin, which would see him exiled in Belarus and those involved in the rebellion evade prosecution.

"Putin now has choices to make, and for the moment, he appears to be seeking an illusory middle ground with half measures," writes Douglas London, a security expert and former CIA officer wrote in the Just Security blog.

The Washington Post reports that Putin appears wary of alienating influential nationalist bloggers, many of whom have expressed support for Prigozhin and his criticism of the Kremlin, and the mercenary leader last week returned to St Petersburg to retrieve a stash of weapons seized in the raid.

London writes that "paranoid" Putin in not dealing decisively with Prigozhin has sent signals to other would-be challengers of his authority.

"Insiders might have reevaluated their greater odds to succeed — or at least their survivability — by moving, or joining a move, against him," he says.

According to an analysis by experts at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC, based think tank, Putin's decision "to not rapidly dispose of the Wagner Group and prosecute rebellion participants is placing himself and his subordinates in an awkward position."

It was an uncharacteristically lenient response from Putin, who has in the past ruthlessly persecuted critics and political opponents.

According to a former Kremlin security official who defected to the West, Putin has long lived in fear of challenges to his power and assassination attempts, and is surrounded by layers of security.

In the wake of the rebellion, the Kremlin has sought to smear Prigozhin, with personal information photographs seized in a raid on his luxury home showing him wearing a woman's wig broadcast on state TV. Yet Putin has also sent mixed messages.

Instead of banning the Wagner Group, which scored one of Russia's few recent successes in Ukraine in seizing control of the city of Bakhmut, Putin has sought to encourage its fighters to sign contracts with the Russian military.

"Putin's decision to not dispose of the Wagner Group - previously Russia's most combat capable force - is making it difficult for Putin and other Russian power players to know how to interact with the Wagner Group and its leaders and fighters," notes the ISW.