GM is shaping up to be the hardest hit by the UAW strike

• GM has the most workers on strike of all the Detroit 3.
• The company narrowly avoided a fourth shutdown Friday.
• GM has lost more than 31K units of production, compared to Ford's 19K, and Stellantis's 17K.

The ongoing United Auto Workers strike is taking a multi-million dollar toll on all three Detroit-based automakers, but General Motors might be hit the hardest so far.

UAW members have been on strike for more than three weeks against Ford, GM, and Jeep-maker Stellantis, demanding hefty wage increases, an end to the tiered wage system, and more job security in the EV age, among other key issues.

The UAW, led by President Shawn Fain, is taking a new approach as the union strikes all three companies at once for the first time. He has announced three targeted work stoppages since the strike began September 15, and GM is the only company that has been targeted all three times. Ford and Stellantis, meanwhile, have only been hit twice each.

GM narrowly avoided a fourth strike Friday with an offer that delayed Fain's weekly update for members. The union president added no new strike targets, despite being prepared to shut down production at GM's highly profitable SUV factory in Arlington, Texas. In the face of this threat, Fain said, the UAW nabbed a win on union representation for future battery plants.

"Today under the threat of a major financial hit, (GM) leapfrogged the pack in terms of a just transition" to EVs, Fain told members on a Friday livestream.

The UAW demands "would ultimately be a torpedo to the future business models" for the Detroit automakers, especially related to electrification, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said in a recent note.

That's a threat particularly to CEO Mary Barra's company, which is pouring a whopping $35 billion into future tech, including EVs, in the coming years. The company has also been slow to release truly affordable EVs, a blow considering their least expensive EV isn't available right now, leading shoppers to rival Tesla.

This is also the second time in four years that GM has experienced a strike. The current work stoppage has cost GM upwards of $200 million already, and it could go on for much longer.

"Obviously, higher labor costs could have an impact on margins but until we have a ratified agreement, we don't know what it will be," GM spokesman Jim Cain wrote in an email to Insider. "Don't discount our ability to find offsets."

Cain also pointed to the pressure a stronger UAW contract can have on the broader industry - pushing up average wages and benefits for everyone - which can change the equation on competitiveness.

Comparisons

Ford, which has the most UAW-represented employees of all the Detroit Three, has already taken a number of hits this year.

The company's stock dropped after it announced significant price cuts to its F-150 Lightning (an effort to stay cost-competitive with rival EV products), and its loss from EVs this year is estimated to widen from $3 billion to $4.5 billion. Ford has even pulled back on its plans to electrify, recently stressing a greater focus on hybrid EVs.

The Blue Oval will most certainly be impacted by the strike, but with 88 days' supply available for the Ford brand and 124 for Lincoln as of the end of September for dealers to sell (per Cox Automotive) it has some padding to absorb the blow. Meanwhile, some of Ford's has so far led on wage offers to UAW leadership, setting a potentially painful pattern for its two crosstown rivals.

It's smart for the UAW to target Ford for bargaining wins, while making an example of GM on the picket line, said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions.

"GM is a large, faceless corporation while Ford is smaller and family-owned," Fiorani said. "They're more likely to negotiate because there's a person behind the name."

Stellantis, whose power in the US market has waned as non-domestic automakers gain market share, is seemingly less concerned about the labor stoppage. It has been the slowest in terms of UAW negotiations, dragging its feet on major proposals. It's also been the least aggressive of the three in its US electrification targets.

Stellantis brands had the most days' supply of the Detroit 3, with Jeep, Ram, Chrysler, and Dodge at 103, 108, 127, and 142 days of inventory, respectively, as of last month, according to Cox. (For context, the national average in September was 60 days.)

Some analysts suggest it might actually behoove Stellantis to have to use up some of that supply. Stellantis also put some of its plants under critical status to up production in preparation of extended union talks.

GM's fate in the wings

Meanwhile, GM is the worst off in terms of inventory, with Buick, GMC, Chevrolet, and Cadillac at 82, 63, 57, and 46 days-worth on dealer lots, respectively, says Cox. GM wasn't shoring up inventory ahead of the labor shortage; in fact, it limited it to maintain a supply-and-demand imbalance that raked in record profits during the pandemic.

GM has lost more than 31,000 vehicles of production since the start of the strike, according to a Deutsche Bank estimate on Friday, compared with Ford's 19,000 and Stellantis' 17,000.

And of the three automakers, GM also has the most striking workers and has temporarily laid off the most workers due to the strike.

"In totality, it does seem like they're faring a bit worse," Edmunds executive director of insights Jessica Caldwell told Insider. But, "For once it's really hard to see how things will shake out ultimately," she added, "because the industry is fundamentally changing."