Inflation slows again as gas prices tumble to earth

• The Consumer Price Index rose 3.1% year over year in November, matching the expectation.
• Core CPI surged 4.0% during this time, the same year-over-year increase previously.
• The CPI also increased by 0.1% from October to November.

The Consumer Price Index increased 3.1% over the year in November, according to Tuesday's publication from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The non-seasonally-adjusted rise in the CPI was expected to be cooler than October's 3.2%. The forecast for November's 12-month percent increase was 3.1%, which is what it ended up being per the Tuesday news release from BLS.

One of the big drivers in the slowdown for headline inflation was a dramatic drop in energy prices. Per the report, gas prices fell 6% over the month and are down nearly 9% from a year ago.

According to AAA, the national average for regular gas was around $3.14 as of Tuesday. That's below the average a year ago, which was $3.26.

"Historically, crude oil tends to drop nearly 30 percent from late September into early winter with gasoline prices trailing the play," Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson, said per a December 7 news post from AAA. "More than half of all US fuel locations have gasoline below $3 per gallon. By the end of the year, the national average may dip that low as well."

Over the month, the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.1% between October and November after seasonal adjustment. The index was expected to hold steady, as it did in October.

"The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy," Tuesday's news release stated.

The shelter index rose 6.5% from a year ago in November and it soared 0.4% month over month, just slightly higher than the previous month's rise of 0.3%.

The year-over-year increase in core CPI, or excluding food and energy, was 4.0%. That's the same change as the 4.0% seen in October. The forecasted change for November was also 4.0%.

Additionally, core CPI increased over the month by 0.3%, which is matching the 0.3% increase expected to be seen. Last month, seasonally adjusted data showed core CPI in October rose 0.2% from September.

The latest report comes out as the Federal Reserve holds its final Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year, in which the consensus seems to be to anticipate interest rates holding steady.

"High inflation imposes a significant hardship on all households and is especially painful for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at Spelman College earlier this month. "Beginning in early 2022, we reacted forcefully, raising our policy interest rate and decreasing the size of our balance sheet to help slow the economy and bring down inflation."

After a jobs report on Friday that highlighted the unemployment rate dwindled from 3.9% in October to 3.7% in November and 199,000 nonfarm payroll jobs added, Indeed's Nick Bunker said that the report was "exactly what you want to see to feel more comfortable about the labor market being on really stable footing."

Given the positive employment report, Bunker told Business Insider on Friday he thought that the Fed will "do nothing in the sense that as expected, I don't think this is going to push them either way in December." Whether there will be another pause on rate increases or not will be announced Wednesday.

Additionally, real average hourly earnings also ticked up by 0.2% in November from October, which is the same rise seen in October from September. These earnings rose 0.8% year over year, a BLS news release on Tuesday said.