New Polling Indicates the Virginia Race for Governor is Competitive – Republican Candidates Surging

Over the summer, it seemed like Democrat Abigail Spanberger was a lock for governor in Virginia, but the outcome of this race is not settled by a mile.

The awful comments from Jay Jones, the Democrat running to be attorney general, shook up the debate between Spanberger and Republican Winsome Sears. The comments also flipped the polling in the race for AG.

Now the Republican AG candidate Jason Miyares is polling better than Democrat Jones, and Sears has also gained ground.

This is a competitive race.

Paul Bedard writes at the Washington Examiner:

Virginia shake-up: Earle-Sears surging, Miyares overtakes Jones

Virginia’s races for governor and attorney general, newly jarred by a turbulent debate and a texting scandal, have suddenly changed three weeks before Election Day, giving new hope to Republicans.

After sitting in a holding pattern for months, Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears has cut Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger’s lead in half, and Attorney General Jason Miyares, running for reelection, has overcome Democrat Jay Jones’ lead.

In a new Trafalgar Group poll of likely general election voters completed Friday, Earle-Sears trailed Spanberger by just 2.6%, 47.7% to 45.1%. And Miyares has overtaken Jones, 48.9% to 43.1%.

Earle-Sears, who dogged Spanberger in their Thursday one-on-one debate, picked up a chunk of undecided voters in the latest Trafalgar survey. In a similar poll from about a week ago, Spanberger led 47.1% to 41.9%. Undecided voters in that Oct. 2 survey were at 9.4% and now they are 5.6%.

Earle-Sears is within Trafalgar’s 2.9% margin of error.

The swing was much bigger for Miyares, who trailed Jones a week ago, 48.8% to 45%.

See the breakdown below:

BREAKING: @trafalgar_group VA Statewide Election Polls (10/08-10/10)

VA Gov:
47.7% @SpanbergerForVA
45.1% @winwithwinsome
1.7% @Donna4Gov
5.6% Und

VA Lt. Gov:
46.8% @SenatorHashmi
45.9% @JohnReid4VA
7.3% Und

VA AG
48.9% @JasonMiyaresVA
43.1% @jonesjay
8.0% Und

See full… pic.twitter.com/2KtIYvvFSL

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 11, 2025

MAJOR BREAKING: Virginia Democrat Jay Jones, who wants Republicans and their children to die, FALLS WAY BEHIND Jason Miyares (R) — and Winsome Sears (R) is within striking distance for governor

AG:
Miyares: 49% (+6) [WOW]
Jones: 43%

Governor:
Spanberger: 47.7%… pic.twitter.com/FHHVkPs3dD

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 11, 2025

BREAKING: Republican Jason Miyares now UP SIX POINTS after Jay Jones “two bullets” scandal, Sears within reach after STANDOUT debate performance

AG:
Miyares: 49% (+6)
Jones: 43%

Governor:
Spanberger: 47.7% (+2.6)
Sears: 45.1%

KEEP THE MOMENTUM GOING VIRGINIA! pic.twitter.com/2sHQxG6Wgc

— Virginia College Republicans (@vacollegegop) October 11, 2025

This is an important point to remember:

Reminder: Trafalgar was the ONLY pollster to have Glenn Youngkin leading the GOP field in Virginia back in 2021. Every other pollster had Amanda Chase winning. https://t.co/3ru6tZqSoK pic.twitter.com/4WR9ujqDVu

— Jia (@jiagrapher) October 11, 2025

The key at this point is turning out the vote. People need to show up at the polls and make it too big to rig.

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