Rep. Dan Crenshaw Loses Texas GOP Primary to State Rep. Steve Toth in Double-Digit Upset

In a major victory for conservative voters in Texas, Rep. Dan Crenshaw has been defeated by State Rep. Steve Toth in the Republican primary for Texas’s 2nd Congressional District.

With 58 percent of votes reported as of late Tuesday night, Toth was leading decisively with 57.6 percent to Crenshaw’s 39.2 percent.

President Donald Trump endorsed every other Texas House Republican incumbent running for re-election ahead of the March 3 primary, but deliberately left Crenshaw out.

This made Crenshaw the only Texas GOP House member without Trump’s backing in a competitive race.

BREAKING: Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw LOSES Republican primary to Steve Toth, he will now be UNSEATED come November in District 2

President Trump notably did not endorse Crenshaw

Wow! UPSET LOSS for Crenshaw. pic.twitter.com/50lNRSE5mR

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) March 4, 2026

Toth is leading in both Harris and Montgomery counties that make up the district.

Dan Crenshaw is getting smoked in this primary. pic.twitter.com/HAX99xJfFk

— Tim Young (@TimRunsHisMouth) March 4, 2026

RINO Dan Crenshaw has been defeated by Steve Toth.

Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/YwcY4bFx7r

— AF Post (@AFpost) March 4, 2026

If Toth stays above the 50 percent threshold, which appears likely, he will win the nomination outright and avoid a May runoff.

Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL first elected in 2018, had faced mounting criticism from the right for positions opposed by the MAGA base, including his past opposition to certain vaccine mandate rollbacks and public spats with conservative media figures.

Toth, a longtime state representative from The Woodlands and owner of a local pool company, campaigned as a hard-line conservative and received the endorsement of Sen. Ted Cruz.

The district remains solidly Republican, so the GOP nominee is heavily favored to win the general election in November.

Crenshaw looks cooked

58% of the vote is in and he’s down by 18 points

That would make 2 incumbents to lose pic.twitter.com/WRT2rM4V8k

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) March 4, 2026

This is likely to be one of the biggest primary upsets of the 2026 cycle.

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