Applications fall 10.5% as 30-year fixed rate moves higher

Mortgage applications decreased 10.5% from one week earlier as high oil prices are keeping Treasury yields inflated, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly mortgage applications survey for the week ending March 20, 2026.

On an unadjusted basis, MBA’s index decreased 10% compared with the previous week.

“The threat of higher-for-longer oil prices continued to keep Treasury yields elevated, and mortgage rates finished last week higher. The 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.43%, more than 30 basis points higher than at the end of February and at its highest level since October 2025,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist.

Logan Mohtashami, HousingWire’s lead analyst, said that higher rates are starting to bite into growth. “Purchase applications still showed positive year-over-year growth, but it was weaker, and week-to-week data was negative.”

The refinance index decreased 15% from the previous week and was 52% higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted purchase index decreased 5% from one week earlier. The unadjusted purchase index also decreased 5% compared with the previous week, but was 5% higher than the same week one year ago.

Kan continued, “Given this period of increasing mortgage rates and diminishing refinance incentives, refinance applications decreased 15% as applications across all loan types declined. Purchase applications were also down last week, as higher mortgage rates, coupled with affordability constraints and economic uncertainty, pushed some potential homebuyers to the sidelines.”

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 49.6% of total applications from 52.3% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity, however, increased to 8.1% of total applications.

By product, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) share of total applications increased to 19.7% from 19.4% the week prior. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) share of total applications decreased to 15.9% from 16.7% the week prior, while the Rural Housing Service/U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) share of total applications increased to 0.5% from 0.4% the week prior.

As average contract interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances increased to 6.43% from 6.30%, rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances increased to 6.45% from 6.39%.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 6.15% from 6.08%, and the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.83% from 5.66%. The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 5.75% from 5.65%.

Xactus Mortgage Intent Index

Data from Xactus‘s Mortgage Intent Index — which analyzes aggregated, anonymized credit-pull activity across the Xactus Intelligent Verification Platform — dropped to a reading of 146.0, marking a week-over-week change of -5.93%.

“The Xactus Mortgage Intent Index declined approximately 6% week over week and was 1.42% lower than the same week last year,” said Thomas Lloyd, chief strategy officer for Xactus. “The index is now down 8.2% from its recent peak two weeks ago, highlighting continued sensitivity to mortgage rate movements.”

Lloyd continued, “Despite the recent pullback, a strong start to the month keeps cumulative activity roughly 3% higher than March 2025.”