Case-Shiller: Home prices up 1.4% in November, Midwest leads gains

Home price growth continued at a tepid pace in November, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index released on Tuesday.

The U.S. National Home Price Index came in at a reading of 328.15, representing a 1.4% annual price gain, the same as in October. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the index was up 0.4%.

“This subdued price growth is less than half of the 3.7% annual price increase notched in November 2024. Consumer inflation cooled to 2.7%, dipping below 3% for the first time since August and aligning with its average pace over the prior 12 months,” Nicholas Godec, the head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “However, home price growth still trails inflation by roughly 1.3 percentage points, meaning real home values have effectively edged down over the past year.”

The 10-City Composite index came in at a reading of 357.47, up 2.0% annually, which is better than the 1.9% yearly increase recorded in October. The 20-City index also recorded an annual increase, jumping 1.4% to a reading of 337.27. After seasonal adjustment, both indices rose 0.5% on a monthly basis.

Of the 20 cites, Chicago reported the largest annual gain rising 5.7% annually, followed by New York (5.0%) and Cleveland (3.4%). On the other end of the spectrum, Tampa recorded the worst annual return, with the index falling 3.9% in November.

“These historically steady Midwestern and Northeastern markets have maintained respectable gains even as overall conditions cool,” Godec said.

He added that in addition to Tampa, other Sun Belt metro areas remain under pressure, showing “dramatic turnarounds” from their pandemic-era strength.

Month-over-month San Diego (0.53%), Phoenix (0.19%), New York City (0.40%), Miami (0.22%), Los Angeles (0.37%) and Las Vegas (0.15%) were the only cities to post increases, while Boston posted the largest decrease at -0.76%.

Looking at the report as a whole, Lisa Sturtevant, the chief economist at Bright MLS, noted that the data reflects home sales that most likely had contracts written in October when mortgage rates began to fall.

“Typically, falling mortgage rates are correlated with faster home price growth, as lower borrowing costs increase homebuyers’ purchasing power,” Sturtevant said in a statement. “In the current environment, however, it is likely we will see both rates and price appreciation fall in early 2026. Would-be buyers have hit an affordability ceiling, and they are looking for both lower rates and more price negotiation to get into the market.”

As buyers look to compete in the coming months, she said that markets in the Northeast and Midwest will remain competitive, but she believes buyers in Florida, Texas and other parts of the Southwest will have more leverage.