Homeownership could slip further out of reach by 2030, study finds

A new study projects that by 2030, home-price appreciation will outpace income growth in every state, with some areas requiring household incomes to more than double just to afford a median-priced home.

According to an analysis of Redfin data by HireAHelper, the national median home price is expected to rise to $615,103 by the end of the decade.

In contrast, household incomes are not projected to keep pace — with three states expected to need 100% or more income growth to maintain housing affordability.

Western states dominate the top of the list, with Montana and California leading the way for the anticipated affordability gap.

Below are the 10 states with the largest projected gaps between income and home prices by 2030, along with the increase in income needed for residents to afford a median-priced home.

The full analysis can be found here.

1. Montana

• 2030 Home Price: $932,584
• Income Needed: $190,747
• % Increase Required: 144.1%

Montana tops the list with the highest affordability gap. Household income would need to rise by 144% to keep pace with home prices. Once considered relatively affordable, the state’s housing market has surged far beyond local income growth — driven in part by pandemic-era migration trends, the report explained.

2. California

• 2030 Home Price: $1,239,280
• Income Needed: $251,990
• % Increase Required: 139.8%

California’s home prices continue to soar, counteracting the state’s higher wages. Even with some of the highest incomes in the country, households would need to earn more than $250,000 per year by 20230 to afford the typical home, pricing out a majority of residents.

3. New York

• 2030 Home Price: $781,203
• Income Needed: $179,705
• % Increase Required: 102.8%

Long known for its expensive housing market, New York will require residents to nearly double their income just to keep pace with rising home costs. Urban areas like New York City are expected to see some of the largest price spikes.

4. Rhode Island

• 2030 Home Price: $854,760
• Income Needed: $189,445
• % Increase Required: 99.5%

Rhode Island’s small size hasn’t shielded it from massive housing inflation. The projected affordability gap shows a sharp rise in home prices paired with stagnant wage growth — creating serious challenges for prospective homeowners.

5. New Jersey

• 2030 Home Price: $844,849
• Income Needed: $210,313
• % Increase Required: 94.6%

New Jersey’s projected home prices make it the ninth-most expensive housing market in the country, but it ranks second for the income required to afford a home — trailing only California. Annual property costs — including mortgage payment and taxes — are expected to exceed $70,000.

6. New Hampshire

• 2030 Home Price: $832,779
• Income Needed: $195,816
• % Increase Required: 82.6%

With affordability worsening across New England, New Hampshire residents face annual property costs of more than $65,000 by 2030.

7. Utah

• 2030 Home Price: $958,405
• Income Needed: $189,703
• % Increase Required: 82.4%

Utah is projected to have the second-highest home prices in the country after California. Rising demand and limited inventory continue to push home prices beyond the reach of the average family.

8. Idaho

• 2030 Home Price: $776,961
• Income Needed: $153,788
• % Increase Required: 82.1%

As one of the states that saw an influx of remote workers during the pandemic, Idaho’s housing market has surged. Annual property costs there are expected to top $51,000 by the end of the decade.

9. Wyoming

• 2030 Home Price: $702,771
• Income Needed: $140,157
• % Increase Required: 81.4%

Although home prices in Vermont are lower than in many other states, slower income growth means that residents will still need to nearly double their earnings to afford a home by 2030.

10. Washington

• 2030 Home Price: $900,487
• Income Needed: $186,613
• % Increase Required: 78.9%

Washington rounds out the list with home prices expected to top $900,000. Income growth has not kept pace with price increases in cities like Seattle — which continues to see high demand despite affordability concerns, according to the report.