Mortgage applications drop 8.9% as snowstorm freezes homebuyer demand

Mortgage applications decreased 8.9% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)’s weekly mortgage applications survey for the week ending Jan. 30. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

On an unadjusted basis, the index increased 4% compared with the previous week.

The seasonally adjusted purchase index decreased 14% from one week earlier, while the unadjusted purchase index increased 2% compared with the previous week and was 4% higher than the same week one year ago.

“Application volume was down last week, led by a 14% drop in purchase applications. Winter Storm Fern likely had an impact as much of the country was snowed in, hampering homebuying activity,” said Joel Kan, the MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist.

“The annual increase in purchase applications was the weakest since April 2025. Refinance activity also decreased over the week, despite mortgage rates moving lower. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.21% last week, a slight decline, but not significant enough to incentivize more borrowers to refinance. Additionally, this week’s results are being compared to the week that included the MLK Jr. holiday.”

The refinance index decreased 5% from the previous week and was 117% higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 57.1% of total applications, up from 56.2% the previous week.

The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 7.5% of total applications. The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) share of total applications decreased to 17.8%, down from 18.6% the week prior. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) share increased from 14.7% to 15.8% from 14.7% during the week, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) share decreased from 0.5% to 0.4%.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($832,750 or less) decreased 3 basis points to 6.21%, while rates for jumbo loan balances (greater than $832,750) declined by 2 bps to 6.32%.

The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased from 6.06% to 6.04% and rates for 15-year fixed mortgages decreased from 5.64% to 5.61%. The average rate for 5/1 ARMs dropped 19 bps to 5.37%.

Xactus Mortgage Intent Index

Starting this week, HousingWire‘s mortgage applications report includes data from the Xactus Mortgage Intent Index, which analyzes aggregated, anonymized credit pull activity across the Xactus Intelligent Verification Platform. The platform accounts for nearly one-third of all credit pulls nationwide and serves as a forward-looking indicator for the mortgage market.

The index observed that borrower intent declined last week after a strong start to 2026, reversing gains seen earlier in the month.

Nationally, borrower intent fell 3.76% from the prior week and was down 4.19% compared with the same week a year earlier.

“Overall, intent grew year-on-year for the month of January, posting a 5.26% increase over January 2025,” said Thomas Lloyd, chief strategy officer for Xactus.

Xactus also cited the winter storm as a factor, with the New England, Mideast, Southeast and Southwest regions seeing week-over-week drops of 4.18%, 8.57%, 5.35% and 5.58%, respectively. Each of these regions underperformed the national average decline of 3.76%.

Regions less affected by the storm outperformed the broader market as expected. Borrower intent in the Far West rose 7.65% from the prior week, while the Rocky Mountain region posted a 2.9% increase.