Off-market sales cost San Francisco home sellers an estimated $750M

A recent study by RealReports and the San Francisco Association of Realtors (SFAR) found that San Francisco homes listed publicly on the multiple listing service (MLS) sold for an average of $302,000 more (median $289,000) than comparable homes sold off-market between 2022 and 2024 — an 18.6% price advantage.

Analysis estimates that sellers lost more than $750 million in potential value over the three-year period by selling privately.

The study analyzed thousands of verified transactions from 2022 to 2024 using MLS data from SFAR, California Regional MLS, and the NORCAL MLS Alliance, cross-referenced with RealReports’ public record database.

Researchers focused on single-family homes and duplexes in San Francisco County, excluding the top 5% of sale prices, inter-family and trust/LLC transfers — as well as pandemic-affected years (2020–2021).

Results showed MLS-listed properties consistently outperforming off-market sales across all price ranges.

Between 2022 and 2024, the average sale price gap grew from $211,000 to $394,000 — with median differences ranging from $160,000 to $315,000.

“We built this study on solid, repeatable foundations — stripping out noise, normalizing the data, and letting the results speak for themselves,” said Jay Pepper-Martens, chief technology officer at SFAR. “In the spirit of finding the truth, we were committed to telling the full story no matter what. The conclusion is clear: visibility equals value. Sellers gain when listings are public, and the market as a whole becomes more transparent and efficient.”

Data was standardized under Real Estate Standards Organization (RESO) specifications to ensure consistency — with unlisted, probate and distressed sales also included, report organizers said.

“This research represents months of rigorous engineering and statistical validation,” said RealReports CEO James Rodgers. “By pairing MLS datasets with public records under RESO standards, we created a replicable framework any MLS can apply. The ~$300,000 delta isn’t a marketing point — it’s an economic truth.”

New analytics platform introduced

Building on the findings, RealReports launched Sightline, a data platform that provides MLSs with real-time visibility into their on- versus off-market activity.

Sightline integrates MLS and public record data into a dashboard that tracks pricing, volume and listing trends by geography, property type and price range.

“Sightline gives MLS’s the data and the voice they deserve,” said RealReports Chief Operating Officer Zach Gorman. “For too long, the conversation around off-market listings has been dominated by narrative and intuition. Now the MLS can fight back with facts — and that changes everything.”

The tool is intended to help MLSs identify transparency gaps and understand market dynamics more quickly.

It also includes prebuilt communication materials to help educate members and consumers about benefits of public listings.

“This partnership with RealReports represents a new model for MLS innovation — agile, data-driven, and collaborative,” said SFAR Chief Information Officer Hud Bixler. “Sightline takes something traditionally buried in spreadsheets and turns it into actionable intelligence that empowers our members and strengthens the consumer case for the MLS.”