Western Pennsylvania, small metros surge in home price growth

Home prices in Johnstown and other western Pennsylvania markets posted some of the strongest gains in the nation in 2025 — dramatically outperforming the country’s largest metros as affordability and tight supply reshaped housing demand.

According to HousingWire Data, Johnstown recorded the highest home price growth of any U.S. metro in 2025, with single-family home prices rising more than 50% from the first week of January through the end of December.

The analysis covers 52 weeks of HousingWire Data from Jan. 3 through Dec. 26, 2025, and tracks active median prices for single-family homes across 366 metro areas.

Johnstown’s home prices climbed from roughly $75,000 at the start of 2025 to roughly $116,000 by year’s end, a 54.9% increase.

“I know our inventory is very low and the buyer demand is very high, and that really goes back to when we got back to work after COVID and mortgage rates were dropped so dramatically,” said Bob Colvin, head of The Bob Colvin Team at REMAX Team Realtors in Johnstown.

“That period sparked a rush of sales that essentially cleared out the inventory, and honestly, it has never really slowed down since then. Even in today’s market, we’re still dealing with extremely low inventory and multiple-bid situations on a regular basis. There just aren’t enough homes to meet demand, and that pressure continues to push prices higher. It’s an incredible time to be a seller.”

The next highest growth market was Dubuque, Iowa, at 40.3% — which saw median prices jump from $249,450 to $349,900 during the year.

Altoona, Pennsylvania, also ranked among the top 20 fastest-growing metros nationwide. Housing professionals say the gains point to continued migration toward lower-cost markets where buyers can still find entry-level homes, even as mortgage rates remain elevated.

Pittsburgh stood out among larger markets as the metro posted a 4.35% price increase in 2025, placing it No. 4 nationally among large metros.

Colvin said the volume of all-cash transactions in his service area today continue to dwarf was what seen before COVID-19.

“Prior to COVID, we averaged about 3% cash transactions, and last year that number jumped to 32% of all our transactions being cash,” he said. “The reason is that people are moving here from larger metropolitan areas like New York, Baltimore and Philadelphia because of the affordability in western Pennsylvania.

“They’re able to sell their homes there, come here and purchase outright with cash. Some are retiring, and others are working from home, but either way, that influx of buyers has made a major impact on demand and pricing.”

Other high-performing small and midsized metros included Springfield, Illinois; Abilene, Texas; and Danville, Virginia.

Most of these markets started the year with median prices well below $300,000 — amplifying percentage gains as demand increased.

Large markets struggle to gain traction

Across the 50 largest metros by inventory, prices declined by an average of 0.14% in 2025, HousingWire Data found.

More large markets experienced price declines than gains, highlighting a widening gap between smaller and larger housing markets.

Among the strongest large-market performers were North Port–Bradenton–Sarasota, Florida, with an 8.27% increase, and Seattle–Tacoma–Bellevue, Washington, which posted 6.17% growth.

“While much of the country spent 2025 looking for a bottom, Seattle found its floor early,” said Jeff Reynolds, a Seattle-based managing broker for Compass. “We’re seeing a bifurcated recovery. While national medians are struggling to keep pace with inflation, Seattle’s median home price, which has now stabilized around $915,000, reflects a market that has moved past the shock of higher rates.

“We aren’t seeing the double-digit spikes of the pandemic, but Seattle’s scarcity of land and high-income concentration mean we are comfortably outperforming the national average. We are trading at more than double the U.S. median.”

Charlotte, North Carolina, and Columbus, Ohio, also ended the year modestly higher.

By contrast, several high-profile metros saw notable declines.

Austin recorded a 6.2% drop in prices. The Florida markets of Cape Coral–Fort Myers and Miami, along with Portland, Oregon, and Memphis, Tennessee, also finished the year in negative territory.

Reynolds said a continued influx of technology jobs in Seattle — especially in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector — has helped avoid negative market outcomes.

“In Seattle, we’re forecasting a healthy, sustainable growth rate of 2% to 4% this year,” he said. “This isn’t speculative growth. It is supported by the AI wealth effect. We’re seeing a new wave of high-earning tech talent from the AI sector entering the market. Unlike 2021, they are coming in with significant stock-driven down payments. Seattle remains a supply-constrained fortress.

“Even with new density laws, we simply aren’t building fast enough to keep up with the workforce. This puts a permanent upward pressure on home values here that you just don’t see in the Sun Belt.”

Affordability, market divides

HousingWire Data shows that smaller metros consistently outperformed larger ones in 2025.

Markets with limited inventory — typically fewer than 500 active listings — saw sharper price increases, suggesting that supply constraints played a key role.

“What I would like to see is new construction,” Colvin said. “That is one area that we do not have for resale value. We do have developments where folks have bought the lots, and then they go directly to the builder and build their homes. That has seen an increase, but we don’t have any builders building new homes that we would be able to do as resale now.

“A lot of our inventory here is older, and we do have a lot of folks that are buying the properties. They’re fixing them all up, bringing them all up to date and then reselling.”

Lower starting price points also mattered in 2025. The average starting price among the top 20 fastest-growing metros was about $300,000, significantly below prices in major coastal and Sun Belt markets.

This affordability advantage appears to have drawn buyers priced out of larger cities.

“The consensus for 2026 and beyond has shifted from waiting for a drop to managing the plateau,” Reynolds said about nationwide market expectations for 2026. “We expect the 30-year fixed (rate) to hover in that 5.8% to 6.3% corridor for the foreseeable future. The ‘Great Housing Reset’ of 2026 is driven by the realization that the Federal Reserve has found its neutral rate.

“For buyers, the psychological barrier of 6% has finally broken. They’ve moved from asking if they should buy to asking how they can buy, using tools like permanent buydowns and adjustable-rate products to bridge the gap.”

As HousingWire Data indicates, the housing market in 2025 was less about national averages and more about local fundamentals — with buyers increasingly looking beyond traditional growth hubs in search of a place to call home.