If the iPhone Fold fails, you can blame the Air

It might seem odd to be in doubt a full seven months after the device was unveiled, but it still isn’t clear whether or not the iPhone Air is a success. Early reports were distinctly unconvincing, with retailers reporting “virtually no consumer demand,” yet Speedtest data last month suggested the phone could be selling more than twice as many units as the iPhone 16 Plus that it replaced. Apple could settle the matter by releasing official sales figures, but that isn’t the company’s style.

The disparity can partially be explained by thinking in terms of expectations. The Plus phones, much like the minis before them, did not sell well at all, which is why they were phased out. And that means surpassing their performance, while pleasing to a degree, might not be cause for much celebration. (It’s also worth bearing in mind that retailer discounts, such as a surprisingly generous £200 cut by Amazon U.K., may have given Air sales an artificial boost after launch.)

Apple will of course extoll the Air at every opportunity, but actions speak louder than words, and we’ll get a better idea of whether Apple is truly happy with the Air’s performance at the next couple of iPhone launches. The iPhone Air 2, if one appears at all, should arrive either this fall alongside the iPhone 18 Pro or in the spring alongside the iPhone 18 and 18e. If it appears at neither event, we can conclude that it was a flop after all. If the product is given a second chance, on the other hand… well, that won’t mean much, since we got multiple iPhone minis and iPhone Pluses. But if the Air isn’t making money it’ll be phased out before too long. Apple isn’t sentimental about such things.

In the long term, the device’s place in the lineup may well be taken by the iPhone Fold, Apple’s first-ever folding phone. That product seems to be on track to launch with the 18 Pro this September (despite reports last week that it might have to be pushed back as a result of production problems), so before too long, we’ll get to see if a wildly expensive foldable really is what Apple customers are looking for. In that sense, it’s essentially the iPhone Air, only more so.

The issue with the Air, the factor which was always likely to limit its appeal, is the undeniable truth that in a number of respects it’s straightforwardly worse than other, cheaper phones. That isn’t normally how Apple lineups work: the iPhone 17 Pro costs more than the iPhone 17 but it’s the same or better across the board. About the only thing you can say that standard iPhones do better than the Pro models, other than cost less, is have funkier colors. Whereas the iPhone Air costs $200 more than the iPhone 17 yet has weaker cameras, shorter battery life, and slower MagSafe. As our reviewer pointed out, you’re paying more for less.

Put like that, the iPhone Air sounds totally unappealing, but that clearly isn’t the case: Air buyers may be in the minority, but they’re out there, and very pleased with themselves too. One Air owner told me last week that he is extremely happy with his phone and would find it hard to ever go back to a full-thickness handset.

That’s pretty much the only thing the product has going for it, but it’s such a game-changer of a design that some customers will take the deal. Give it a few years, and super-slim handsets are likely to become the standard; perhaps we will all find 8mm phones just as unbearably old-fashioned as those with 4-inch screens and home buttons seem today. Whether the iPhone Air will still be around to take advantage of that evolved market is harder to say.

And where does that leave the Fold? Facing a difficult battle, but not a hopeless one. Likely to start somewhere in the neighborhood of $2,000, the device will present a ruthless test of what precisely iPhone buyers care about. Based on dummy models leaked last week (and corroborated by earlier CAD drawings and other reports), the Fold will have two rear-facing cameras, which is an improvement on the iPhone Air. But the current design doesn’t appear to include a MagSafe coil, which would be a grievous wound indeed. Even the e-class iPhones have MagSafe these days, and they cost (unless estimates are way off) less than a third as much as the Fold.

As with the Air, we will see how much customers value the device’s unique selling point. Foldables are an alluring prospect, combining in a way achievable by no other device the portable chassis of a mini phone with the big screen of a mini tablet. But they ask so very much in return, and not just financially. While the Air’s great challenge was to convince everyone that it wouldn’t bend, the Fold will have to persuade us that its hinge won’t be a vulnerable point of mechanical failure. And there will no doubt be numerous other compromises.

Apple will have learned lessons from the launch of the Air. It will know how important it is to target customers’ reservations from the very beginning, which in the case of the Air meant reassuring discussions of build quality and battery optimisations. But it should also be known by now that groundbreaking designs need to be experienced to be truly appreciated. The Air looks like a terrible deal on paper, and the Fold will probably look even worse. But based on my friend’s evangelical zeal, that all changes once you get the handset in your’ hands.

We must also be realistic. Success for the iPhone Air was always going to look very different than success for the iPhone 17. It wasn’t just about driving revenue, but about testing design concepts and building an audience for subsequent models. The iPhone Fold, meanwhile, will have a mission to introduce Apple customers to the foldables market and establish what could become an entire dynasty of products. At $2,000 per unit, it isn’t going to outsell a $799 standard model, and it would be absurd to expect those sorts of numbers.

But that doesn’t mean Apple will be happy in a niche. This isn’t the Vision Pro, and the flagship slot in the iPhone roster is expected to make serious money. The iPhone Fold can absolutely do that. But based on the Air’s struggles, it isn’t going to be easy.

Welcome to our weekly Apple Breakfast column, which includes all the Apple news you missed last week in a handy bite-sized roundup. We call it Apple Breakfast because we think it goes great with a Monday morning cup of coffee or tea, but it’s cool if you want to give it a read during lunch or dinner hours too.

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Podcast of the week

Apple has finally discontinued the Mac Pro. On the latest episode of the Macworld Podcast, we talk about Apple’s tower workstation: its history, its purpose, and what it means for the Mac lineup going forward.

You can catch every episode of the Macworld Podcast on YouTube, Spotify, Soundcloud, the Podcasts app, or our own site.

Reviews corner

• iPhone 17e: An impressive balancing act.
• Intego ONE: Top-tier malware protection for Mac.
• Satechi OntheGo: Elegant 3-in-1 charger for your pocket.
• Aulumu M10 Dual-Mag 10K: Space-age power bank.

And with that, we’re done for this week’s Apple Breakfast. If you’d like to get regular roundups, sign up for our newsletters, including our new email from The Macalope–an irreverent, humorous take on the latest news and rumors from a half-man, half-mythical Mac beast. You can also follow us on Facebook, Threads, Bluesky, or X for discussion of breaking Apple news stories. See you next Monday, and stay Appley.