Wait, is Apple actually doomed for real this time?

You might want to sit down for this.

… Apple saw its smartphone sales in China plummet by 19.1% year-over-year in [Q1 2024].

Counterpoint Technology Market Research (April 23, 2024)

That’s a lot of percents, but it is only China (lol, “only”). Surely the company is doing better elsewhere. What about the U.S.? The Macalope seems to remember it was doing gangbusters there.

Over the past four quarters, iPhone share of activations fell from 40 percent to 33 percent…

Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (April 24, 2024)

That number is a new low for iPhone activations. Wait, can an old high be a new low? Is an old high retroactively a low or does it remain a high until it is surpassed then repeated and then becomes a low? Do the changes flow both forward and backward through time? We’re going to need some starships.

What if we just picked a market share for each vendor and they stuck to that, huh? Apple wouldn’t need to be on top, it’s just that the Macalope’s been talking about market share for 15-plus years and he’s really tired of it.

Okay, so things aren’t currently great for the iPhone (although these decreases come off of some pretty high numbers). Surely, Apple’s doing great elsewhere.

Well, are you still sitting? If not, sit down again. Actually, you should probably just remain seated for the rest of this column. Who doesn’t like a nice sit, anyway?

The Macalope isn’t telling you to lie down, but he would not tell you not to, either. It’s how he writes these things, so why not?

Well, wait, who came up with those previous estimates? Turns out it was Ming-Chi Kuo. And while he did say that Apple asked suppliers to expand production to 700 to 800k units for 2024, he suggested himself that 2024 shipments would be more like 650 to 700k.

According to the Macalope’s calcamalator, the revised estimates are still above the 350k estimate some suggested before the Vision Pro was released and the the 150k units others guessed at just after the device was announced.

The Financial Times also has a report confirming Kuo by stating Apple is making “drastic cuts” and will “make fewer than 400,000 units in 2024.”

Oh, I’m sorry. That report is from July 2023. So, in nine months we’ve gone from “drastic cuts to 400k units” to… uh, “drastic cuts to 400k units.”

Surely a new, lower-priced Vision Pro will cause all this to change, though, right? Well, Mark Gurman now says there will be no new Vision Pro until late 2026. That might seem like a long time but, remember, that’s only because it is.

There are a few precedents for this, however. The first AirPods shipped in December of 2016 and the second generation didn’t ship until March of 2019. The first HomePod shipped in February of 2018 and the HomePod mini was not released until November of 2020. The first isn’t a great comparison because it’s more of an accessory than a stand-alone product and the second isn’t a great example because, well, the HomePod isn’t really a tentpole Apple product.

Ultimately, Apple’s drop in iPhone share must be taken into the context of it doing exceedingly well in prior quarters, much as when people say the Macalope has “let his pants down” you have to remember how high he had them hiked in the first place. Honestly, he could do it four or five more times before you’d even see his belly button.

The Vision Pro, on the other hand, is setting an entirely new watermark and, at the price it sells for, it was never going to be very high. Still, the FOMO seems to have mostly drained out of this device. If Apple doesn’t have another in the queue for two more years, it might want to speed up releasing apps and experiences for the Vision Pro.

If the company ever gets desperate, it can always make an iPhone mini again. They’d get at least one sale.

iPhone