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I do not think the market is pricing in the real possibility of another peak in inflation. Rents account for 32% of the CPI, don’t actually go down very often, and can lag the rest of the CPI by up to a year. Energy accounts for 7.5% of the CPI. We were been subsidizing energy costs almost all of 2022 with deployments from the strategic petroleum reserve. And now, Core CPI and jobs data have both come in way stronger than expected.
When all of these things make it into the data that Fed looks at over the next few months, Jerome Powell might surprise the market by raising interest rates higher than expected or keep them higher longer than expected, or both. That doesn’t mean another 75 basis point raise on interest rates right now. It could be a couple 25 basis point raises that turn into 50. Or a couple 50 basis point raises that turn into 75. Or that interest rates stay closer to 4% instead of 3.25 through 2025.
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đź“ť Resources & References đź“ť
CNBC Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies on Capitol Hill about policy and the economy — 3/7/23: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDqPlJY2tp4
CNBC Television The Fed wants to make sure it's done its job, says ARK Invest's Cathie Wood: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqoPEKaJ0rk
January Inflation Report - Consumer Price Increases Slowed Slightly: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/14/business/january-cpi-inflation-report
Jobs report shows increase of 517,000 in January, crushing estimates, as unemployment rate hit 53-year low: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/jobs-report-january-2023-.html
Cathie Wood's Holdings by ARK Invest Fund
ARK Invest Innovation ETF (ARKK) â–¶ https://ark-funds.com/arkk
ARK Invest Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) â–¶ https://ark-funds.com/arkg
ARK Invest Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ) â–¶ https://ark-funds.com/arkq
ARK Invest Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) â–¶ https://ark-funds.com/arkw
ARK Invest Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) â–¶ https://ark-funds.com/fintech-etf
ARK Invest Space Exploration ETF (ARKX) â–¶ https://ark-funds.com/arkx
đź“ś Disclosures đź“ś
Additional Masterworks Disclosures: “net returns” refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and costs, calculated from the offering closing date to the sale date. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold and past performance is not indicative of future results. See important Reg A disclosures: https://www.masterworks.com/cd
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