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In this episode of Konversation With Kushal, host Kushal Lodha sits down with veteran value investor Naresh Kataria
Naresh explains how he uses simple Google Trends data to predict consumer credit demand months before corporate results drop. He maps out the second-order effects driving global markets-from how frozen geopolitical reserves sparked the gold bull run, to why India's LPSS scheme rerated power finance stocks, and the exact macro math behind crude oil’s danger zone for small-caps.
Key Frameworks Discovered:
1-Trend Tracking: Using localized search data as a leading indicator for corporate growth.
2-The Oil Pivot: Why rising crude oil squeezes small-caps while FMCG stays resilient.
3-Second-Order Geometry: Learning to connect global macro disruptions to domestic stock winners.
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Timestamp:
00:00:00 Intro & Trailer
00:01:46 Who is Naresh Katariya?
00:03:15 Portfolio CAGR Deep Dive
00:04:45 Investing Through Google Trends
00:11:47 Top Trends for 2026
00:20:19 Gold as Reserves Deep Dive
00:31:10 Gold Prediction
00:32:51 Gold Allocation Deep Dive
00:40:23 Gold Financiers Thesis
00:41:30 Second Order Thinking Deep Dive
00:48:30 GLP-1 Drug Deep Dive
00:51:47 LPS Discovery
01:02:21 Why Rupee is Falling?
01:06:51 Can Rupee Touch 150?
01:09:01 Crude's Relation with Market
01:16:24 Crude Oil Prediction
01:18:57 Commodities Market Deep Dive
01:34:25 Book Recommendations
01:42:50 Lessons from Rajiv Khanna and Govind Parikh
01:48:45 What Would Mr. Naresh Ask Himself?
01:49:17 Conclusion & Outro
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