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After months of record highs, Ryan Detrick explains why market momentum will continue in 2026.
00:00 Introduction
00:18 Is the Bull Market Sustainable Into 2026?
01:11 Why This Bull Market Still Has Legs
02:21 2026 S&P 500 Return Outlook
03:46 Will Tech Lead or Rotate in 2026?
05:39 Can Europe Beat U.S. Markets?
06:49 What Gold & Silver Signal Now
08:53 Bitcoin After a 30% Pullback
09:58 Advice for Investors on the Sidelines
11:46 Buy Now or Wait for a Pullback?
Transcript:
Caroline Woods
Joining me now, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. Ryan. Thanks so much for being here, Caroline.
Ryan Detrick:
Thanks for having me. Me.
Caroline Woods
So, Ryan, stocks are lower today, but the S&P 500 hit a new all time high last week. How sustainable is this momentum heading into 2026.
Ryan Detrick
Well again thanks for having me back. Thanks for having me. I guess I should say, for the first time in a while, there's a lot of momentum. And listen, the S&P 500 at the time we're doing this is up seven months in a row. We might be up in December, so that's eight months in a row. So we know this is a fairly stretched big picture market. But I think what's so encouraging as we look around the globe. It's not just a US story right. There's a lot of other countries that are participating. We've advanced the clean lines making new highs. Tech pulls back a little bit. So industrials and financials take the baton. The lifeblood of a bull market is passing the baton around. So eventually we're going to have a down month or two. I mean that's just how it works. But big picture I think there's a lot of strength to this bull market and this bull market is really alive and well.
Caroline Woods
So what is it that has you optimistic that this is a bull market that's going to charge on?
Ryan Detrick
Yeah, there's a couple of things, I guess the two that really stand out. We call these the dual tailwinds to a bull market. Earnings and profit margins. Are we just had a spectacular earnings season that wrapped up. And we're looking at according to FactSet data like new highs and profit margins as well. So if you have those two dual tailwinds we can talk about those for about three years now on the Carson team. That tends to suggest you still a bull market. And one more thing about this. You know, this bull market here in the US. It just turned three years old a couple months ago in October. Right. So it's in its fourth year. We're probably just where to put that. Going back the last 50 years. We found five other bull markets that made it to at least this point. And I say bull markets like a cruise ship. Once they get moving, they're hard to slow down. They're hard to turnaround. They're hard to stop. And sure enough. Looking at those other bull markets. The average length was eight years. The shortest any of them was five years. This is just one way to put it. But I think this momentum is real. And this bull market probably has a few more tricks up its sleeve as we head into 2026.
Caroline Woods
Do you have a price target for 2026? How much further can stocks go from here?
Ryan Detrick
Now we do with our 2026 outlook worse than the S&P 500. We go by percentages will gain between 12 and 15% in next year. In 2026. And you think about it, the average year at the average year gains about 9%. What's fascinating, I think, for investors to really remember, especially this time of year. Only four times going back since 1950s at 75 years, has the S&P 500 gain between 8 and 10%. Okay, only four times. That's about average. What's that tell us? Well, bigger moves are more normal when you're up. It's up about 19% on average versus when you're down down about 14. Now layer on one more time with this. We do not see recession again. We think things are going to be pretty good. Acceleration globally next year is a big theme of ours. In years you don't see a recession. The S&P 500 is up at least double digits seven out of ten times. So again, yes, we're looking at three spectacular years in a row. That doesn't mean, though, that this fourth year can't be solid. We probably don't gain 20%. Well, you know what? You know, 12 to 15%, we think makes a lot of sense in 2026.
Caroline Woods
Yeah. And still double digit returns. I guess the next question would be what role will big tech play in that 12 to 15% returns. Do you think we'll see this rotation out of tech in the new year, or will it leave the gains?
Ryan Detrick
Look Caroline. We think tank will still be part of the gains. Right. And what's so fastly about this year. Like there's the Mag seven. We all know that the 493. Will you look at the mag seven. Like I can't really talk too much individual equities, but only two of them are outperforming the S&P 500 this year. Right. It's not all about tech.
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