China's plan to seize on global chaos and supplant the US may be working

• China's Xi Jinping and President Joe Biden are meeting in San Francisco at the APEC summit.
• The meeting is taking place against a backdrop of intensifying competition between the powers.
• China is seeking to exploit wars in Ukraine and the Middle East to grow its influence.

President Joe Biden seems keen to ease tensions with his main global rival, China's leader Xi Jinping, against a backdrop of global chaos and conflict.

The pair are meeting today in San Francisco on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, in the first face-to-face meeting between the US and Chinese leaders in a year.

US and Chinese officials are reportedly seeking to reestablish military communications that were cut after February's spy balloon incident and find common ground on issues including ways to limit the use of AI in nuclear weapons systems.

But Biden's bid to smooth fraught relations faces huge obstacles, with the differences between the powers becoming ever more stark. In conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East, China and the US are at loggerheads, backing rival powers in the battle for global ascendancy.

China, Russia and Iran form anti-US axis

China is exploiting the conflicts to portray itself as the champion of nations that see themselves as having been long oppressed by Western global dominance, and it is winning new allies in the process.

In its quest to supplant the US, Beijing has formed close ties with Russia and Iran, the US' arch-global foes.

"Three anti-American and anti-democratic powers are now working together to confront, attack, and undermine American and Allied interests in multiple parts of the world," Jonathan Ward, CEO of the Atlas Group, told Insider.

The rivalry is playing out across a number of global conflicts.

Xi has provided Russia's President Vladimir Putin with key diplomatic and economic support as Russia seeks to conquer Ukraine, while the Biden administration has handed Ukraine $75 billion in aid to help defend itself.

China has echoed the Kremlin in portraying the conflict, not as a war of unprovoked aggression by Russia, but as a justified response to Western meddling in the region.

In the Middle East, China has been critical of Israel's bombardment of Gaza. The US meanwhile has defended it as a just response to the October 7 terror attacks by the Iran-backed Hamas militant group and deployed warships to the region to deter Iranian aggression.

Beijing's stance, say analysts, is aimed at winning over countries that have long been angered by perceived Western hypocrisy over the Israel-Palestine conflict, including many of the US' long-standing allies in the region.

"The wars in Europe and the Middle East now signify that two of the three authoritarian states in this axis are at war or in a state of proxy war, and both of those states - Russia and Iran - are backed by China," said Ward.

Xi showcases new power

October's Belt and Road summit in Beijing was a show of strength by Xi, and a challenge to US power. Guest of honor at the summit was Putin, who is subject to an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

Under the Belt and Road initiative China has provided billions in infrastructure loans to countries in the so-called "global south" of developing nations. But it's about more than establishing economic ties, said Ward.

"Initiatives like the Belt and Road — which many emerging nations hoped would be about economic development alone — are increasingly obvious anti-Western geopolitical initiatives," said Ward. "Even if they don't recognize it now, emerging nations will eventually have to choose sides as China uses a combination of economic incentives, support for aggressor states like Putin's Russia, and diplomatic mendacity to reshape the international order."

At the meeting, Xi showcased new allies from the global south who've staked their future on a world formed by Chinese and not American power.

"In an era of great power competition, China's reinforced image as the supporter of the cause of the Global South is not insignificant in swaying the position of the developing world," Yun Sun, an analyst at the Stimson Center, told Insider.

Jeremy Chan, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the Eurasia Group, said that the summit, and the recent China-backed bid to expand the BRICS alliance, were focused on building ties with a select group of nations.

China "is more interested in deepening relations with a few strategically important partner countries such as the Arab states, Ethiopia, and Argentina, rather than pursue its previous 'everywhere all at once' strategy that largely defined the early years of the BRICS, for example," he said.

But despite Xi's increasingly defiant stance on the global stage, cracks are beginning to show in China's strength. They are weaknesses Biden will likely be hoping to exploit to broker agreements with Xi and restrain Chinese ambition.

The Chinese economy, after decades of growth, is struggling, with a property debt crisis causing spiraling unemployment and foreign investors leaving. Despite its challenge to Western power, China remains dependent on Western markets and American investment to stave off the worst effects of the downturn.

Taiwan is an issue where Xi will be hoping to find common ground with Biden.

The independence of the island nation has long been a flashpoint between the US and China, with Xi having declared Chinese determination to seize back control of the country and Biden having signaled his commitment to defending Taiwan's autonomy.

With Taiwan's elections approaching, it's an issue where both leaders will be seeking to decrease tensions.

"Reducing tensions with the US is in Beijing's interest, insofar as it could slow the rollout or decrease the severity of US export controls, increase business confidence and decrease de-risking pressures, and prevent unintentional conflict," said Jeremy Chan, an analyst with the Eurasia Group.

"The recent statements out of Beijing, including from President Xi himself, indicate that China wishes to reduce tensions and find common ground on topics such as Taiwan independence to prevent further backsliding at a minimum."

Sun, the Stimson Center expert, said Xi will be seeking to use the meeting to burnish his image as a global statesman and head off China's economic woes.

"China's economy is not doing well and needs US investment, technology and trade," she said. "Meanwhile, China wants to deter the US before the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan. Last but not least, Xi is trying to use the diplomatic opportunity to consolidate his great leadership."

China has lots to lose, and much to gain, from Wednesday's meeting with Biden. But whatever agreements Xi brokers with the US president it's unlikely to change his core mission: Chinese global dominance.