It may be a lot cheaper to heat your home this winter

• For a majority of Americans, the price of heating your home is expected to be less than last winter.
• Natural gas prices are expected to fall across the country, while electricity may fall slightly.
• A few million homes fueled by heating oil may see prices jump up, though.

Many Americans may be paying a lot less to heat their homes this winter.

New estimates by US Energy Information Administration determined that in every region of the US, natural gas bills are likely to fall sizably this upcoming winter compared to last winter. Last winter, residential retail natural gas prices exceeded those of the previous 10 winters, the EIA said.

Natural gas is the primary heating fuel of 46% of the nation's homes, according to the US Census Bureau.

The US national average is expected to fall from $764 for all of last winter to $601 this upcoming winter, a decline of over 21%, the EIA estimated. The West is projected to have the most drastic percent change from $843 to $590 — a 30% decrease. And in the Northeast, which historically has had higher natural gas bills, the average household with natural gas heating is expected to pay $761, in contrast to $924 last winter.

Since January and February 2023 were warmer than normal, these prices may increase comparably in January and February 2024 in non-West regions, the EIA said.

This could impact the Midwest the most, as the Midwest has nearly 18 million homes that use natural gas as their primary heating fuel, more than 2.5 million more than the West.

This fall in prices for natural gas was driven by higher crude oil production, the EIA noted, meaning inventories are higher this year than they were last year.

It's likely that homes in the Western US will pay less for heating overall given temperatures may be warmer in the region than the previous winter.

Still, the EIA predicts in its Winter Fuels Outlook that winter heating prices on the whole may remain relatively flat. Electricity, which heats around 41% of US homes, is expected to come down only slightly overall from $1,080 last winter to $1,063 this winter — and may rise in the Northeast and South. A majority of homes — around 61% — heated primarily by electricity are in the South.

Propane, used primarily by 5% of households, may fall 3%, while heating oil, used primarily by 4% of homes, could rise as much as 8%, driven by lower inventories.

Most homes heated by heating oil are in the Northeast, meaning some households in New England may be paying much higher bills. The average home primarily fueled by heating oil will pay around $1,850 this winter, the EIA estimates — about 200% more than homes fueled by natural gas. The Wall Street Journal notes spending on heating oil could increase inflation in the Northeast and take a toll on low-income residents.