Housing market inventory keeps declining and that's bad news for homebuyers

Welcome back, readers. I'm Phil Rosen.

We're revisiting housing inventory today because it's one of the key sticking points that's keeping home prices elevated and buyers wary.

Jerome Powell said last week that housing activity is bottoming and could be improving already — but recent data from top realtors make me less optimistic.

If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.

1. Get this: The housing market today has 39% fewer homes for sale than before the pandemic.

That's according to data from housing group Redfin, who reported that in the four weeks leading to June 11, the total number of US homes for sale saw the biggest decline in 13 months.

The inventory issue isn't likely to ease up soon.

There's a slump in homebuilding, and new home listings just fell 23%, marking the 10th consecutive month of double-digit declines.

Mortgage rates are currently about double what they were in 2021, when ultra-low rates fueled a home-buying boom.

Now, homeowners that locked in low rates previously are unwilling to move and refinance a purchase at near-7% levels.

And Powell and co. last Wednesday indicated that there's still room to raise borrowing costs even higher before the end of the year. That could help influence mortgage rates to go even higher this year.

"The Fed's indication that there are more rate hikes to come is not what homebuyers want to hear," Redfin's Chen Zhao said.

"It's likely to keep mortgage rates elevated and may even push them up a bit. People who are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for mortgage rates to decline, should know that's unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future."

Another key Redfin finding: 91.8% of homeowners in the US have a mortgage with a rate below 6%.

Since owners don't want to move, buyers have fewer options and face more competition on the market. And with demand outpacing supply, that means prices probably won't see any meaningful declines.

Edward Seiler from the Mortgage Bankers Association told me recently that the housing market has literally never been this unaffordable for new buyers, and he showed me the numbers to back up his words.

"Current homeowners," he said, "that were lucky enough to get a 2.75% interest rate in 2022 are in a great position, but for new home buyers looking to buy a first home, or those looking to move to another home, it's a very daunting proposition."

Are you currently in the market to buy a home? What has your experience been like in 2023? Tweet me (@philrosenn) or email me ([email protected]) to let me know.

In other news:

2. US stock futures fall early Tuesday, following hawkish remarks from the Fed last week. Check out the latest market moves.

3. Earnings on deck: FedEx, Canopy Growth, and more, all reporting.

4. Here are the 21 stocks that small-cap funds are snapping up right now. Fintel tracks portfolio disclosures of growth fund managers, and they broke down which names attract the most attention. Here's the list.

5. Nvidia is the top AI stock and it could jump another 15%. Morgan Stanley analysts have noted an uptick in demand since the chipmaker's blockbuster earnings report, and their outlook remains bullish.

6. "Big Short" investor Steve Eisman is looking beyond tech picks. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, he cited utilities and US infrastructure as a promising place to park cash right now. In his view, the so-called greenification initiatives will open the doors to serious investing opportunities.

7. Ex-Treasury chief Larry Summers said the Fed's latest move was "confusing" and "disturbing." The decision, he explained, likely reflects the internal politics of the central bank and it came off as inconsistent. Read more.

8. Meet a top fund manager overseeing a $3 billion firm. He specifically looks for companies expected to grow their market share. These are his top 10 stocks he likes now — and the variables he looks for before making long-term bets.

9. This batch of value stocks could be primed for outperformance. A top fund manager broke down why he expects the tech trade to unwind in a downturn. See his seven favorite names.

10. Virgin Galactic stock rallied double-digits on Friday after news broke that the company was preparing its first commercial space flights. Richard Branson's company announced that the first flight, dubbed Galactic 01, is scheduled between June 27 and June 30. The private space flights will cost $450,000 per ticket.

Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. Feedback or tips? Tweet @philrosenn or email [email protected].

Edited by Max Adams (@maxradams) in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.