Putin's plan for winning the war in Ukraine could be starting to become reality

• Vladimir Putin has long bet that Western support for Ukraine would begin to weaken.
• The US Congress is in turmoil over GOP opposition to Ukraine aid.
• But public support in the West continues to be strong.

As the right wing of the GOP tipped Congress into chaos over its opposition to committing more money to Ukraine, the Kremlin took a victory lap.

Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesman, said the turmoil was a sign of things to come — that Western support for Ukraine will begin to collapse.

Analysts have long deduced that this is a crucial part of President Vladimir Putin's plan: to stay in the fight so long that the West gets tired of helping Ukraine.

"Fatigue over this conflict — fatigue from the completely absurd sponsorship of the Kyiv regime — will grow in various countries, including the US," predicted Peskov.

The US congressional dispute centers on a new multi-billion dollar aid package to Ukraine, the latest in a series of massive cash and weapons packages that have proven vital to Ukraine in its battle against Russia's invasion.

The isolationist far-right faction of the House GOP has opposed the package, even forcing out former House speaker Kevin McCarthy over the issue.

The Pentagon has said it has billions of pre-approved aid still to give — but that will at some point run out.

Meanwhile, the US is not the only nation showing Ukraine fatigue.

Last week, a far-right party won the election in Slovakia after running on a pledge to end support for Ukraine, with which it shares a land border.

In Germany, the far-right AfD party, whose leaders have long nurtured ties with Russia and opposed Ukraine aid, is surging in the polls.

Even if European support holds firm, The Wall Street Journal this week reported that Ukraine's European allies would struggle to make up any shortfall from US aid drying up.

Several news stories this week conveyed variations on a single theme: Western allies saying they have already given most of what they are prepared to give.

Putin's bet

According to analysts, Putin has long bet on Western support for Ukraine weakening, as high fuel prices and inflation driven by the war continue to dent household budgets.

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has projected that the conflict could last until 2025, the year after the US presidential election. Russia seems committed for the long haul.

According to US intelligence officials cited in The New York Times this week, Putin is doing his best to amplify anti-Ukraine sentiment, gearing up a widespread disinformation campaign aimed at the US.

George Beebe, former director of the CIA's Russia analysis unit, in an article for the Quincy Institute, described what could come next.

US and European reluctance could feed each other, he said, in turn eroding morale in Ukraine and making it even harder to support its fight.

"The combination could produce a tipping point at which the gradual erosion of Western support for Ukraine spills into an abrupt reduction or collapse," he wrote.

Other analysts believe the Kremlin's victory lap may be premature.

The majority of Americans, around six in ten, still back aid to Ukraine, though support is falling among Republicans, according to a new poll by the Chicago Council of Global Affairs.

Belgian think tank Bruegel in June found that popular support for Ukraine in the EU was holding firm, despite a slight dip.

"Support for Ukraine has remained strong, suggesting that the public understands fully the wider implications for European security of the outcome of the war," said its researchers.

But in a volatile and unpredictable geopolitical climate, it noted that Western leaders face tough challenges in maintaining the support that keeps Ukraine in the fight.