Russia has shifted beyond its 'stupid' missile attack strategy, and it is bad news for Ukraine

• Russia last winter hit Ukraine's energy infrastructure, causing devastation but no strategic win.
• It has recently pivoted to attacking Ukraine's defense industry.
• The new strategy is a lot more concerning for Ukraine, experts told Business Insider.

Russia has changed its longstanding missile strategy to one that could have worse effects for Ukraine's effort on the battlefield, experts say.

During its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has used its guided missiles to knock out the heating and electrical systems Ukrainians need to get through the winter.

The campaign has caused devastations in cities, killing civilians, destroying homes, and leading authorities to set up heating points for residents. But it failed to break the Ukrainian population's will to fight and made no difference on the battlefield.

Russia launched the same campaign again this winter, with some of its most lethal civilian attacks of this war.

But it has also adopted a new strategy, one that experts say could prove a much bigger issue for Ukraine's efforts to fight back: Targeting Ukraine's weapons industry and its logistics to move those arms to the front, at a time when Ukraine's ability to make its own weapons is more important than ever because of falling Western military aid.

"I'm hugely concerned," Fabian Hoffmann, a missile technology expert at the University of Oslo in Norway, told Business Insider.

Last winter he felt: "Thank God that Russia was so stupid in terms of wasting all its missiles last winter for these counter-population purposes."

"Because imagine how much more effective they would've been if they either used them against frontline targets," he said, "or against industry and logistics."

Russia's strategy wasn't very productive, he said: "From a military perspective, counter-population targeting is absolutely ineffective. All you do with it is you try to undermine the adversary's morale."

But Ukraine's morale never seemed to fall. So while the strategy was tragic for those in Ukraine's cities, it "has absolutely not worked for Russia," Hoffmann said, and it had no effect on the frontlines.

But Russia, while it's still aiming for those targets, is now trying something new.

That involves targeting Ukraine's equipment, either at the manufacturing plants or while it is en route the front line.

That tactic comes at a bad time for Ukraine, as it ramps up its own production of weapons and ammunition as the future of supplies from allies appears to be in doubt, and as it looks to have the sort of capabilities that allies say they will not provide.

Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of Ukraine's military intelligence agency, also said on Monday that Russia is now predominantly targeting Ukraine's military-industrial complex while still spacing out attacks on its energy infrastructure.

And Russia itself has admitted to the strategy, saying on Saturday that it targeted and hit facilities in Ukraine making ammunition and drones, two of the weapons most effective at killing advancing troops and vehicles.

Reports over the past two months show Russia targeting and in some cases claiming to have destroyed a missile factory, an ammunition depot, a military equipment warehouse, and a factory that makes drones and repairs military equipment.

Timothy Wright, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Business Insider that "Ukraine does have of course a domestic defense industrial base that the Russians would be keen to erode as much as possible."

And Ukraine's growing weapons production, he said, gives Russia an opportunity now.

For Russia, he said, "It means that that's the time to go after it, rather than allow the Ukrainians to start developing more and more stuff themselves."

He said Russia is likely thinking, "hopefully we'll get to a point where Western equipment isn't being delivered and Ukrainians themselves can't maintain this equipment or build new equipment themselves."

Something helpful for Ukraine, he said, is that much of its weaponry is repaired outside the country, in places like Poland.

Plus Ukraine's domestic weapons industry is spread out across many sites, making it harder to effectively wipe out: "Being able to identify those and then strike those small sites is really, really hard."

This invasion has also proven Russia often lacks the ability to track and strike targets, as missiles appearing to miss their intended destination and instead hit into fields.

But Russia is increasing its missile production, and Ukraine says it desperately needs more air defense systems, as Russia tries to wear them down.

Hoffmann said he is "really concerned" if Russia is able to "engage in a concentrated and well-orchestrated counter industry campaign."

He warned Russia's campaign "could become hugely problematic for Ukraine."