Data-driven leadership will define the 2026 housing market

Each new year brings new table stakes for the housing industry, as leaders assess the factors and trends that are no longer optional to stay competitive. Trends in AI, data and lead generation are driving many of these shifts. Nora Guerra, Guild Mortgage’s senior vice president of community lending solutions, will kick off the Housing Economic Summit in Dallas on Feb. 10 to show how she is harnessing data to make faster business decisions in 2026.

Guerra’s session will serve as a roadmap of sorts for the rest of the day as the summit is designed to deliver macro-level insights that attendees can leverage in tactical ways to grow their business. These are the new table stakes in 2026.

Guerra shares in this Q&A how she is seeing these new trends take shape in the housing space.

HousingWire: What do you think will define the 2026 housing market for leaders?

Nora Guerra: The 2026 housing market will be defined by direct connection, where lenders no longer wait for borrowers to find them but go directly to consumers with education, insight, and financial literacy support. Leadership in this next cycle will be defined by agility and authenticity — using real-time data to meet buyers where they are and to respond quickly to shifting needs and expectations.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, total single-family mortgage origination volume is expected to increase to $2.2 trillion in 2026, up from about $2.0 trillion expected in 2025. Purchase originations are forecast to increase 7.7% to $1.46 trillion next year. That growth underscores one clear message: success will belong to the leaders who can translate information into impact.

For industry leaders, this means building strategies that are both data-driven and people-centered. The lenders who will thrive in 2026 are those who bridge insight with inclusion, connecting innovation to everyday reality for the modern homebuyer. They will understand that technology and analytics are only as powerful as the human connection behind them. The future will belong to leaders who turn knowledge into accessibility and information into trust — because that is where sustainable growth begins.

HW: Why should more leaders look at data to fuel business decisions and how does that pivot make an impact?

NG: Data is no longer a back-office function; it is the foundation of leadership. The most effective leaders use data not only to understand performance but to anticipate change, identify opportunity gaps and design strategies that are inclusive, sustainable and forward-looking. In a housing market shaped by dynamic economic conditions and evolving consumer expectations, intuition alone is not enough.

True data-driven leadership does not replace the human element; it strengthens it. It allows leaders to use evidence to guide empathy, to see where communication or access may fall short, and to act decisively in building solutions that create measurable value. When data moves from a dashboard to a strategy, and from a strategy to execution, it transforms organizations, relationships, and ultimately, communities.

Looking ahead, data will continue to be the connective thread between insight and action. It empowers teams to respond faster, to personalize engagement and to build trust through relevance. Leaders who harness data with purpose will not only see performance improve but will also redefine what success means in this industry — measured not just by production, but by progress in helping families achieve financial stability and homeownership confidence.

HW: What has you excited about next year’s housing market, if anything?

NG: What excites me most about 2026 is that we are entering a period of market redefinition rather than recovery. The housing landscape is evolving toward a more connected and consumer-informed future, where success will be built on education, transparency and trust. The industry has an opportunity to strengthen relationships with a new generation of buyers — many of whom are younger, multicultural and digitally engaged — by meeting them with clarity and purpose.

This shift represents more than a change in market cycles; it is a transformation in mindset. The focus is moving from transactions to relationships, from short-term results to long-term empowerment. The next phase of growth will come from understanding that community connection is not an outreach effort but a core business strategy. When lenders align with the values and aspirations of the consumers they serve, they help shape a more inclusive and resilient housing economy.

That is what gives me optimism about the future. Seeing data, buyer education, and relationships converge is proof that the industry can evolve while staying true to its purpose — helping families and communities thrive. The year ahead will not simply signal a return to stability; it will mark the beginning of a new era of connected growth driven by knowledge, access, and shared progress.

Don’t settle for only the data. Learn how to harness it to make better and faster decisions. Find the signal at the Housing Economic Summit. Join us in Dallas on Feb. 10.