Mortgage originations could jump 13%, reach $2.27T in 2026

Forecasting and advisory firm iEmergent expects U.S. mortgage originations to reach $2.27 trillion in 2026, a 13% increase from 2025, as slowing economic growth and easing interest rates are priming a rebound in refinance and home purchase activity.

The company released its 2025–2027 U.S. Mortgage Origination Forecast on Wednesday, which outlined a gradual housing market recovery after several years of subdued lending.

Mark Watson, iEmergent’s chief of forecasting, said the outlook for 2026 reflects a changing economic environment. As tariffs weigh on the economy, consumer confidence softens and the labor market cools, gross domestic product growth is expected to slow further, which is prepping the market for lower mortgage rates.

Mortgage originations recently climbed to their highest quarterly level since 2022, with both purchase and cash-out refinance volumes nearing three-year highs, according to ICE Mortgage Technology’s August Mortgage Monitor report.

“Crossing back above $2 trillion in 2025 signals renewed strength in the mortgage market,” Watson said. “By 2026, lower rates and moderating home prices should support activity, though affordability challenges will persist — especially for first-time buyers.”

The firm projects total mortgage volume to surpass $2 trillion in 2025 for the first time since 2022, driven by a 48% increase in refinances and a 12% rise in purchase loans — good for a total volume gain of 20% compared to 2024. By 2026, refinance activity is expected to grow another 24% and purchase volume will rise 2.3%, pushing total loan counts up nearly 10% year over year.

In 2027, iEmergent expects purchase activity to total about 4.09 million loans, or $1.56 trillion, while refinance volume is forecast to hold steady at 2.37 million loans, totaling $754 billion.

“These national trends tell an important story, but they don’t tell the whole story,” said iEmergent CEO Laird Nossuli. “Every market will experience the next wave of recovery differently. iEmergent’s data gives lenders visibility into those differences, so they can see how mortgage activity is expected to shift in specific markets, even down to the census-tract level.”