Mortgage rates rise as U.S.-Iran conflict carries on

Mortgage rates saw moderate increases in the past week as global economic uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran conflict continues, putting a damper on what was previously expected to be a brisk spring homebuying season.

Mortgage News Daily reported Friday that 30-year fixed rates spiked to a seven-month high point of 6.41% before retreating to 6.36% on Tuesday. MND rates are based on best-execution pricing from lender rate sheets.

At HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center, rates for 30-year conforming loans averaged 6.19% on Tuesday, up 4 basis points in the past week. Rates for 30-year loans through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) also rose 4 bps to 6.01% while rates for 30-year jumbo loans jumped 8 bps to 6.09%. HousingWire Data analyzes locked loans across all borrower credit profiles.

Rates are expected to remain in the range of 6% to 6.5% in the near term as the Federal Reserve weighs economic data such as employment and inflation. The Fed finishes its two-day meeting on Wednesday, and the CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows that interest rate traders are nearly unanimous that benchmark rates won’t be touched.

Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said last week that housing market conditions remain positive despite the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran that has prompted an uptick in rates and less clarity for home buyers and sellers.

“Mortgage applications have increased for three consecutive weeks as borrowers continue to take advantage of mortgage rates around 6%,” Broeksmit said in a statement. “Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and broader economic uncertainty, overall demand remains strong. Applications to both refinance and buy a home are running far above year-ago levels.”

Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage, offered a more tempered perspective due to volatility in the stock market and rising oil prices.

“Until oil prices settle back down … we’re in trouble,” Cohn said. “There’s been an incredible loss of wealth, and if you’re feeling poor, you’re not going to be buying. … People seemed to be happier about getting back into the real estate market, and that’s all been shot out of a cannon.”

New policies to spur bank lending?

While the federal funds rate is expected to remain in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% this week, there are other factors that could shape the direction of mortgage rates over the next few months.

Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, touched on one of these factors last week in a speech at a Cato Institute event. Last month, Bowman told attendees at an American Bankers Association conference that regulators should revise Basel capital rules to spur mortgage lending and servicing activity by banks. And she doubled down on that message last week.

“These changes should be viewed as part of a broad, careful review of capital requirements undertaken over the past nine months,” Bowman said. “We have carefully considered the overlaps between Basel III and stress testing to ensure that, when combined, capital requirements appropriately capture risk rather than being overly punitive. The resulting cumulative effect on the largest banks’ capital requirements is modest.”

Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) wrote in a note after Bowman’s speech that the Fed’s proposal — which is being developed in conjunction with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) — “still sounds relatively in line with prior expectations.”

“We continued to believe that the Basel III Endgame, which may be released on March 19, 2026, will be more accommodative for the broader banking industry than the initial 2023 proposal,” the analysts wrote, adding that a 90-day public comment period is expected to follow the release of the plan.

“The proposal would also calibrate the risk weighting of mortgages based on the risk characteristics of the loans, which would potentially reduce risk weighting for low-LTV loans to as low as 20% from the current 50% for all loans. The biggest likely impact is an increase in adjustable-rate mortgage lending by banks and potentially modest increases in MSR ownership. We do not expect banks to move into loan origination, given other regulatory concerns.”

Political maneuverings at the Fed

On Friday, the Trump administration was dealt a blow in its criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Federal Judge James Boasberg blocked subpoenas from the Department of Justice (DOJ) tied to alleged cost overruns for renovations of the Fed’s headquarters.

“There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the President or to resign and make way for a Fed chair who will,” Boasberg wrote.

“On the other side of the scale, the Government has offered no evidence whatsoever that Powell committed any crime other than displeasing the President. The Court must thus conclude that the asserted justifications for these subpoenas are mere pretexts.”

The DOJ said it would appeal the decision, but continuing its case against Powell — whose term as Fed chair ends May 15 — could be counterproductive to the goal of lower interest rates. President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as Powell’s successor, but even some Republican lawmakers have said they will not support any nominees to the post until the case against Powell is resolved.

Warsh is generally seen as less hawkish than Powell and more likely to support broad rate cuts, but HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami believes that Warsh’s stance could be closer to neutral.

“The financial community could be puzzled because of Kevin Warsh’s past views on monetary policy, but I believe he has given up a lot of his old views and convinced Trump he would try to get rates as low as possible to get this position,” Mohtashami wrote.

“His views could change once Trump is out of office, but as long as Trump is president, I believe we don’t have to worry about the pre-Trump Kevin Warsh.”